I was personally at a conference by Bob Garfield, about 3 years ago, and I was struck by a phrase he said, which at the time seemed somewhat exaggerated, it was something like a prediction about how digital was going to affect the "status." quo” of media content distribution, said: “In a few years the Radio and TV antennas will be on the ground and the Canadian trees will be standing.”
Now, especially seeing how newspapers pay more attention to the Internet as a distribution channel, and reading yesterday a news story about the audience of Internet Radio stations, in which La W de Colombia is among the 20 most listened to in the world with more than 89,000 listeners, I think he was, and still is, very right.
I have continued to regularly read Garfield in Advertising Age; It seems to me that he is one of the people who most clearly sees the panorama of digital convergence and advertising on social and digital platforms. Regarding the recent launch of his book “El Escenario del Caos” I thought it would be interesting to publish here a translation of an interview given to him by John Parikhal, a partner at http://www.gomediafix.com/ who is also one of the most smart people I know, he is like Garfield, a “guru” in marketing and media issues in the USA.
It's worth knowing what he thinks about this. Here's the unofficial translation: Ad Age columnist Bob Garfield is a very nice and very smart guy who has managed to shake up more than a few people with his new book, 'The Chaos Scenario'. His main observation: The sky has fallen on both the media and the advertising business and things will never be the same again. Never. His main recommendation: “Listenonmics”. Listen to your customers' conversations and engage them directly in your growth.
Don't tell them what to do. Don't talk to them. Listen to them. Bob is absolutely right. We are beginning to see the "chaos" in media and advertising, but a lot of people don't like what he says, especially when he talks about the implosion of advertising and media as we know it. So much so that Advertising Age, his employer, gave his book a very bad review, and I was so struck by this that I called Bob up to ask him some questions about "chaos" and how businesses can capitalize on it. We ended up talking for hours.
The summary is compiled into a series of short interviews that I will be publishing over the next few days. This Blog is structured as Questions and Answers. It is not taken literally. It's strictly based on the direction of the conversation Bob and I had. Bob reviewed the text and once he read it he told me: — and this IS verbatim — “It seems fine to me.” Chaos John: When you talk about 'chaos', it seems like you're referring to the breakdown of old media rules. You suggest that the old rules were based on a shortage of two things – advertising inventory and 'sources' of entertainment and information, such as TV and newspapers. You also suggest that the new rules include unlimited online inventory, an explosion of 'sources', and a consumer as informed and decision-making as ever before in history. Tell me more about this. Bob: There is too much advertising inventory. This will force prices down.
This means that many models based on advertising in exchange for content will not work. As prices fall, there will be less money available to fund 'content', and this means that both the Internet and traditional media production will be seriously affected.
John: This means that the outlook is very bleak – that an Internet that relies heavily on advertising is nowhere near feasible. And a drop in advertising prices will affect radio, TV and advertising agencies, too.
Bob: That's what it seems. I don't think we'll ever see a large offering of scripted series or novels on TV again and we'll see the impact on what's available online if it doesn't depend on advertising. Reactions to the book. John: Who will steal the show? What will happen to advertising? This can be a little “scary” for people who make a living in this business. How have people reacted? Bob: When I started putting my ideas down, a few friends said it was okay, many others rolled their eyes, and the rest stayed in the fetal position.
John: So the biggest reactions were disbelief or paralysis.
Bob: That's right.
John: I saw a lot of disbelief in the recent review of The Chaos Scenario by Bob Goodby in Ad Age. In criticism, what Goodby does is 'roll your eyes' and he used a 'too big to fail' argument to defend the current model of advertising and media. But, perhaps you shouldn't be surprised by the counterattacks from the “establishment” – especially by the caliber of what you say in your book, even from the first chapter which is titled 'The Death of Everything'.
Bob: Yes, everything is changing and it can happen very quickly. YouTube has only been created for 4 and a half years. The iPhone is a 2 year old baby. And they were invented by companies that weren't even in the TV or phone business. They are transformational technologies. I'm just trying to get people's attention that the status quo is dead. But even more importantly, something new is being born at the same time.
John: In your book you say, “When TV finally succumbs to the digital age, we will be living in a very different world. And (hopefully) a much better one. But for all those who entrench themselves in the status quo, involuntary change can be difficult to conceive and accept.” What does this mean for TV, radio, advertising agencies, the Internet and brands? Coming soon – What you can do in the midst of “chaos”.
And, Bob tells us what he's going to do about his threat to lose his job if he's right about Chaos.